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Vulnerability and Adaption to Climate Change in the Maldives: Expectations for COP15

Climate change is the 21st Century’s greatest human rights issue and security challenge. To stave off disaster, world leaders meeting at Copenhagen must agree to deep, rapid and binding emissions cuts.

Dr Mohamed Waheed, Vice President of the Republic of Maldives
21/10/2009 10:05

For an effective agreement in Copenhagen, developing countries must drop their objections to making serious emissions reductions of their own. The rich world can help alleviate developing countries’ reticence in two ways: firstly, by helping developing countries secure access to the capital and the technology necessary to pursue green growth. Secondly, by increasing their aid budgets to ensure poor, vulnerable nations can protect themselves from inevitable changes to the climate expected over the next half Century.

For many developing countries, such as the Maldives, climate change is no longer a theoretical concept or a future threat. Climate change is happening now. Increased outbreaks of mosquito-born tropical diseases such as Dengue fever and Chikungunya are also straining the health system. More than one third of our inhabited islands are suffering coastal erosion, in part attributed to climate change.

Our third more populous island, Fuvahmulah, requires a sea wall with an estimated price tag of $40m. For a small, developing country whose total government revenue is a mere $450m per year, these sorts of capital outlays are prohibitively expensive without outside help.

For countries such as the Maldives, both emissions cuts and adaptation funding are crucial to long term survival. On the former point, the Maldives accepts that negotiations in Copenhagen must be driven by the demands of science, not politics. The news coming from the world’s most eminent scientists is increasingly dire, if not desperate, reading.

The commitment by the G8 to contain global temperatures rises to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, implies concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere of around 450 parts per million (ppm), is woefully inadequate.

The world has warmed by less than one degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution but even this modest temperature rise is tipping the global ecosystem dangerously off kilter. The sudden and unforeseen collapse in Artic ice of the past two years has compelled previously cautious scientists to hit the panic button. Today’s emissions stand at 390ppm. Scientists warn anything over 350ppm could result in climate meltdown.

Developed countries, with the money and technological know how, must lead the way in slashing emissions. But if the world is to avoid catastrophic climate change, it is clear that developing countries must rapidly halt emissions growth, including a rapid phase out of coal and an immediate halt to tropical deforestation.

To this end, the Maldives announced this year plans to become carbon neutral in a decade. Spearheaded by a switch from oil to 100% renewable energy production, the government aims to eliminate the use of fossil fuels on the Maldivian archipelago by 2020.

For the Maldives, which already has very high electricity costs, going carbon neutral is not just the right thing to do, it also makes economic sense. Some of our schools, for instance, spend up to 25% of their budget on diesel for their electricity generators. Renewable power might be more expensive to install but once those investments are made, the recurrent savings are substantial.

To persuade all developing countries to steer clear of fossil fuels, however, requires massive investments in green technology over the coming decades. Developing countries do not have the money for such investments and it is unreasonable to expect the rich world to foot the entire bill. However, rich nations could help poorer countries gain access to international finance for green development, perhaps by underwriting some of the risks. That way, poorer nations will not be asked to choose between economic growth and protecting the environment.

Rich countries also need to stop prevaricating over adaptation financing. For two decades, the most vulnerable countries, such as small island states, have been forced to jump through procedural hoops in the hope of being granted international aid for adaptation. But while the Maldives, for instance, has met all of its obligations, precious little, if any, assistance has been forthcoming.

This hardly inspires confidence in other developing world capitals, where politicians fear there is insufficient money to green the economy and protect the country from the impending storm. If the rich world wants poorer nations to follow low-carbon development, they must provide an adaptation financing mechanism that is adequate, easily accessible and flexible. The most very vulnerable countries, such as small island states, should be assisted with special status and provided emergency funding over the next few decades.

The risks climate change poses are so great that nations must put their historical differences aside and talk as friends at Copenhagen, rather than negotiate as enemies. Ensuring adaptation funds start to flow to those who need them most, and creating new routes to capital for green-minded poorer nations, would be an excellent way to build trust between the global North and South.


Dr Mohamed Waheed is Vice President of the Republic of Maldives

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